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Political narratives are extremely hard to shift once they have set. There are still people who erroneously attribute Labour’s 1992 election defeat to Neil Kinnock’s over-exuberance at a party rally. Now, as the Conservative party digests the most unpalatable result in its entire history, the first battle will be to set the official version of why they lost. And since this is central to the looming leadership contest, the fight has already begun. In fact it started well before the election.
一旦形成，政治叙事极难改变。仍有人错误地将工党1992年的选举失败归咎于尼尔•金诺克(Neil Kinnock)在一次党派集会上过于热情洋溢。现在，保守党(Conservative party)正在消化其整个历史上最难以接受的结果，第一场战斗将是确定他们为何失利的官方版本。由于这对即将到来的领导人竞选至关重要，战斗已经开始。实际上，它早在选举之前就已经开始了。
Where all agree is that this week’s loss marks the collapse of the broad, contradictory and probably unsustainable coalition assembled by Boris Johnson after Brexit, which brought white working class and Leave-supporting voters into the Tory tent alongside successful liberal-minded globalists.
所有人都同意的一点是，本周的失败标志着鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)在英国退欧后组建的广泛、矛盾且可能不可持续的联合政府的崩溃，这个联合政府将白人工人阶级和支持退欧的选民与成功的自由主义全球主义者一起纳入了保守党的阵营。
But there, the debate starts. On one side are those Tory rightwingers like Suella Braverman and David Frost, who argue that on tax, immigration and net zero, the party abandoned its core voters, opening up the space for the success of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
但辩论就此开始。一方面是像苏埃拉•布雷弗曼(Suella Braverman)和戴维•弗罗斯特(David Frost)这样的保守党右翼人士，他们认为在税收、移民和净零排放方面，该党背弃了其核心选民，为奈杰尔•法拉奇(Nigel Farage)的改革英国(Reform UK)的成功打开了空间。
For them the wipeout is entirely explained by a split on the right. In this account Rishi Sunak is a woke, Tory left-winger whose ideological betrayal was compounded by his ineptitude in calling the election before it was necessary and running a disastrous campaign.
对于他们来说，这次灭顶之灾完全可以归咎于右派的分裂。在这个说法中，里希•苏纳克(Rishi Sunak)是一个觉醒的托利党左翼人士，他的意识形态背叛加上在提前召集选举和进行灾难性竞选方面的无能使情况更加糟糕。
The more convincing counter-narrative is that voters felt worse off and were repelled by a government they concluded was incompetent. Defeat was sealed by the Covid lockdown breaches of Johnson’s Downing Street and Liz Truss’s mini-Budget.
更有说服力的反叙事是，选民们感到自己处境更糟，并对他们认为无能的政府感到厌恶。约翰逊的唐宁街团队违反Covid封锁规定和利兹•特拉斯(Liz Truss)的迷你预算，使失败成为定局。
Having already lost liberal-minded voters over Brexit, they then lost their new coalition of voters too. But while this explanation makes more sense, the party still needs to heal the split.
在英国退欧问题上已经失去了自由派选民之后，他们又失去了新的选民联盟。尽管这种解释更有道理，但该党仍需要弥合分歧。
Traditionally the Tories would simply move a notch to the right and steal enough of Reform’s clothes to regain their supporters. However, this new opponent will not easily let itself be out-righted. Each move right will also cost votes on the other, more liberal side of the Tory coalition.
传统上，保守党只需稍微向右移动，偷走足够多的改革英国的选票，就能重新赢回他们的支持者。然而，这个新的对手不会轻易让自己被右派超越。每一次向右的举动也会在保守党联盟的另一边，即更自由派的一边，失去选票。
The other problem is that the radical right now has a toehold on Westminster politics and Farage believes he can supersede the Conservatives. Those calling for a new nationalist right argue that there is no point in trying to win back lost liberal Tories.
另一个问题是激进右翼目前在威斯敏斯特政治中占据了一席之地，法拉奇相信他可以取代保守党。那些呼吁建立新的民族主义右翼的人认为，试图重新赢回失去的自由派保守党是没有意义的。
Reform looks to the success of the radical right in Europe and asks whether it cannot turn into the main voice of the right in the UK. Farage’s ambition will only have been fortified by his modest parliamentary breakthrough and the 98 seats where Reform is currently in second place, almost all of them to Labour.
改革英国关注欧洲激进右翼的成功，并询问自己是否能成为英国右翼的主要声音。法拉奇的野心只会因为他在议会的小突破和改革英国目前在第二位的98个席位（几乎全部都是工党的）而得到加强。
Farage argues his party can reach parts of the electorate, notably the white working class and some young men, who backed Johnson but no longer think any of the main parties speaks for them. While the primary damage in this election was to the Tories, he argues that the next time it could be to Labour.
法拉奇认为他的党可以触及选民中的一部分，尤其是白人工人阶级和一些年轻男性，他们曾支持约翰逊，但不再认为任何主要政党代表他们。尽管这次选举对保守党造成了主要损失，他认为下一次可能会对工党造成损失。
So what next? The UK’s electoral system punishes splits. That means the odds are still in the Conservatives’ favour against Reform. They have more votes, more than twenty times the seats and a historically recognised brand. They will also hope that Reform’s success reflects a temporary disaffection which can be clawed back.
接下来怎么办？英国的选举制度惩罚分裂。这意味着保守党对改革英国仍然占据优势。他们拥有更多的选票，超过二十倍的席位和一个历史上被认可的品牌。他们还希望改革英国的成功反映的是一种暂时的不满，可以重新挽回。
For this to be true, however, the Tories need to find a leader with the confidence to argue for the UK’s economic interests, who can rebuild a broad coalition and speak to the populist vote while not alienating core supporters. This probably means recognising the potency of the immigration issue while finding a way not to alienate large sections of liberal and wealth-generating Britain on all other matters. Above all, it means reconnecting with younger voters and families by showing that the party has an economic offer for them.
然而，要实现这一点，保守党需要找到一位有信心为英国的经济利益辩护的领导人，他能够重建广泛的联盟，同时能够与民粹主义选民沟通，而不会疏远核心支持者。这可能意味着认识到移民问题的重要性，同时找到一种方式，不会在其他所有问题上疏远自由主义和创造财富的英国的大部分人。最重要的是，这意味着通过展示该党对年轻选民和家庭有经济方案，重新与他们建立联系。
The challenge is that Farage is one of the most effective communicators in politics. He is rethinking his pitch, softening some of his free-market instincts and looking at how to appeal to younger voters. The Tories are not currently blessed with a similarly stand out figure.
挑战在于法拉奇是政界最有影响力的沟通者之一。他正在重新思考自己的宣传方式，减弱一些自由市场的本能，并寻求如何吸引年轻选民。保守党目前没有类似的杰出人物。
The only other path, unless Farage is gifted the electoral reform he seeks, is some form of unspoken pact with Reform. But this probably requires a few more defeats and stalemates before it could happen.
除非法拉奇得到他所寻求的选举改革，否则唯一的其他选择就是与改革英国达成某种形式的默契。但这可能需要更多的失败和僵局才能实现。
What is clear is that right-wing politics is now in flux. At its heart is the battle over whether future success lies in a broad coalition built on restored reputation for competence or a radical realignment of the right.
显而易见的是，右翼政治正在发生变革。其核心是围绕未来成功是建立在恢复能力声誉的广泛联盟，还是右翼的激进重组之间的斗争。
Logic, history and the British electoral system strongly suggests the former. Surrendering to the Faragist path rather than taking it on and defeating it would herald the end of the centre right and a capitulation to unserious politics. But the only guarantee is that as long as the split remains, the right should get used to opposition.
逻辑、历史和英国选举制度都强烈表明前者是正确的选择。屈服于法拉奇主义的道路而不是与之抗争并战胜它，将预示着中右派的终结和对不认真的政治的屈服。但唯一的保证是，只要分裂存在，右派应该习惯于处于反对派的位置。