After the fall: the legacy of Boris Johnson | 鲍里斯·约翰逊之后,英国走向何方? - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
17周年大视野精选
【高端限免】After the fall: the legacy of Boris Johnson
鲍里斯·约翰逊之后,英国走向何方?

Britain’s next Conservative prime minister will operate in a landscape defined by a uniquely polarising leader | 英国下一任保守党首相将在一个独特的两极分化领导人所定义的环境中工作。

There were moist eyes around the cabinet table on Thursday as Boris Johnson began his long goodbye from British politics. “There were a few of them wiping away tears,” says one member of Johnson’s hastily assembled team. “Pathetic really. I wasn’t crying.”
周四,当鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)开始告别英国政坛时,内阁会议桌周围的人都热泪盈眶。“有几个人在擦眼泪,”约翰逊匆忙组建的团队的一名成员说。“真的很可怜。我并没有哭。”
Indeed beyond the loyalists clinging to the wreckage of Johnson’s broken government, there were few tears being shed among Conservative MPs after they drove out of office the man who led Britain out of the EU and who — according to his critics — dragged British politics into the mud.
事实上,除了坚守在约翰逊残破政府残骸上的忠诚分子外,保守党议员们几乎没有流下眼泪,因为他们赶走了带领英国脱离欧盟的约翰逊,而且根据他的批评者的说法,他把英国政治拖入了泥潭。
After a series of scandals in which Johnson repeated the same dismal cycle of concealing the truth, retreating, then being found out, his party could take it no longer. “Enough is enough,” Sajid Javid told parliament the day after quitting as health secretary on Tuesday, a decision that triggered an avalanche of resignations which swept the prime minister away.
在一系列丑闻中,约翰逊重复着掩盖真相、退缩、然后被发现的悲惨循环,他的政党再也无法忍受了。赛义德•贾维德(Sajid Javid)于周二辞去卫生部长一职,并在第二天向议会表示:“受够了。”贾维德的这一决定引发了雪崩式的辞职,首相也因此下台。
Johnson will remain in office, but not in power, until September, when the Conservative party elects a new leader to replace him. A lucrative career of speechmaking, journalism and book-writing lie ahead.
约翰逊将继续留任,但不掌权,直到9月,保守党选出新的领导人来取代他。他的未来将进入一个有利可图的演讲、新闻和写书的生涯。
In some global capitals there was relief. Joe Biden, US president, could not bring himself to mention Johnson’s name in a statement on the “special relationship” after the UK prime minister announced his resignation as Tory leader.
在全球一些国家的首都,人们松了一口气。在英国首相宣布辞去保守党领袖职务后,美国总统拜登在一份关于“特殊关系”的声明中没有提及约翰逊的名字。
Biden, who once called Johnson a “physical and emotional clone” of Donald Trump, was frustrated with the prime minister’s willingness to rip up his Brexit treaty with the EU — a decision, argue critics, that threatens to destabilise Northern Ireland’s Good Friday peace agreement.
拜登曾称约翰逊是唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“身体和情感克隆”,他对首相撕毁他与欧盟的脱欧条约感到失望——批评者认为,这一决定可能会破坏北爱尔兰的耶稣受难日和平协议。
“I won’t miss him,” said Bruno Le Maire, French finance minister, on Friday, echoing similar sentiments across the EU. “It proves that Brexit mixed up with populism does not make for a good cocktail for a nation.”
法国财政部长布鲁诺•勒梅尔(Bruno Le Maire)上周五表示:“我不会想念他。”欧盟各国也表达了类似的情绪。“这证明,英国脱欧和民粹主义混在一起,对一个国家来说不是一杯好鸡尾酒。”
James Cleverly, the new education secretary and a Johnson loyalist, says the comparison with Trump clinging on to power is ludicrous. “We are not America,” he says. Yet some Conservative MPs did make the comparison, fearing Johnson could take Britain to a dark place.
约翰逊的忠实支持者、新任教育大臣詹姆斯•克莱弗利(James Cleverly)表示,将其与特朗普紧握权力不放相提并论是荒谬的。“我们不是美国,”他说。然而,一些保守党议员确实做了比较,他们担心约翰逊会把英国带向黑暗。
The 58-year-old leader had jokingly compared his determination to cling to office to that of the Japanese soldier Hiroo Onoda, who hid in the jungle for years and refused to accept Japan’s surrender after the second world war, but others did not see the funny side.
这位58岁的领导人曾开玩笑地将自己坚持执政的决心比作二战后躲在丛林中多年、拒绝接受日本投降的日本军人小野田宽郎(Hiroo Onoda),但其他人并不认为这有什么好笑的地方。
The UK prime minister had claimed he had a direct “mandate” from the British voters — MPs had to remind him that Britain is a parliamentary democracy, not a presidential system. Briefings by some of his allies that Tory MPs would have to “dip their hands in blood” to remove him evoked shudders.
英国首相曾声称他有来自英国选民的直接“授权”--议员们不得不提醒他,英国是一个议会民主制,而不是总统制。他的一些盟友通报说,保守党议员将不得不“把手浸在鲜血中”才能让他下台,这让人不寒而栗。
In the end Johnson went quietly. There was no angry mob, just a small band of diehard loyalists applauding him in Downing Street as he announced his resignation. Johnson blamed everybody else for his misfortune — accepting no personal responsibility — then turned on his heels and disappeared behind the famous black door.
最后,约翰逊安静地离开了。没有愤怒的暴民,只有一小群铁杆支持者在他宣布辞职时在唐宁街为他鼓掌。约翰逊把自己的不幸归咎于其他人——没有承担任何个人责任——然后转身离开,消失在那扇著名的黑门后面。
Most of the political obituaries agreed that Johnson, and his style of government, were unique in British politics. Indeed none of the contenders to replace him have anything like the flair, charisma or devilry that made him such a compelling leader.
大多数政治讣告都认为,约翰逊和他的政府风格在英国政治中是独一无二的。的确,取代他的竞争者中没有一个人具有使他成为如此引人注目的领导人的天赋、魅力或魔鬼般的气质。
But his departure raises questions about Johnson’s political legacy and whether — whoever inherits his crown — the next Conservative prime minister will be operating in a landscape defined by the leader known by allies as “Big Dog”.
但是,他的离开引发了对约翰逊政治遗产的质疑,以及无论谁继承他的王位,下一任保守党首相是否会在一个由被盟友称为“大狗”的领导人定义的环境中运作。

Tax cuts vs public spending

减税与公共开支

Few doubt that Johnson will go down in British history as a highly consequential prime minister: the leader who spearheaded the campaign to rip Britain out of the EU in 2016 and then — against significant opposition — delivered on his promise to “get Brexit done”.
几乎没有人怀疑,约翰逊将作为一位影响深远的首相载入英国历史:这位领导人在2016年带头推动英国退出欧盟,然后——不顾重大反对——兑现了“完成脱欧”的承诺。
His 2019 general election victory delivered a Conservative majority of 80 — the biggest since the 1980s heyday of Margaret Thatcher — extending the party’s reach into constituencies that had never previously voted Tory.
他在2019年的大选中获胜,使保守党获得了80票的多数席位,这是自玛格丽特·撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)上世纪80年代全盛时期以来最大的一次,使该党的势力范围扩大到此前从未投票支持保守党的选区。
“He demonstrated that there is an electoral market for Conservatives in former industrial seats in the north, midlands and north Wales that the party had almost given up on,” says David Lidington, former de facto deputy prime minister to Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May.
“他证明,保守党在北部、中部和北威尔士的前工业席位存在一个选举市场,该党几乎放弃了这些席位,”约翰逊前任特里萨•梅(Theresa May)事实上的副首相戴维•利丁顿(David Lidington)表示。
Although Johnson arguably had an easy task in defeating the unelectable leftwing Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, his achievements will define the political landscape for his successor.
尽管约翰逊在2019年击败不可能当选的左翼工党领袖杰里米·科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)可以说是一件轻而易举的事情,但他的成就将决定他的继任者的政治前景。
Brexit was the issue that helped the Tories make headway in the so-called red wall constituencies in working class parts of the north of England — the Labour party’s traditional heartland — and it is now accepted by all mainstream UK parties that there is no way back for Britain, at least not for the foreseeable future, when it comes to EU membership.
英国脱欧是帮助保守党在英格兰北部工人阶级地区的所谓红墙选区--工党的传统中心地带--取得进展的问题,现在英国所有主流政党都接受,在欧盟成员资格问题上,英国没有任何退路,至少在可预见的未来没有。
Even Sir Keir Starmer, Labour leader, this week announced that if he wins the next election he will not try to take Britain back into the EU single market or customs union and there would be no return of freedom of movement.
就连工党领袖基尔•斯塔默爵士(Sir Keir Starmer)本周也宣布,如果他在下次选举中获胜,他将不会试图让英国重新回到欧盟单一市场或关税联盟,而且行动自由也将不复存在。
Starmer describes his approach as “making Brexit work” and that will be the task facing whichever Conservative politician succeeds Johnson as prime minister. Leaders in European capitals — and Biden in Washington — are hoping to see a more constructive approach.
斯塔默将他的做法描述为“使英国脱欧成功”,这将是无论哪位保守党政治家接替约翰逊担任首相所面临的任务。欧洲各国首都的领导人--以及华盛顿的拜登--都希望看到一种更具建设性的方法。
Johnson has embedded Brexit — regarded as recently as 2015 by most mainstream politicians as a cranky obsession of Nigel Farage’s UK Independence party — as national policy, in spite of accumulating evidence of the economic damage it is causing.
尽管有越来越多的证据表明英国脱欧正在造成经济损失,但约翰逊还是将英国脱欧作为国家政策。直至2015年,英国脱欧还被大多数主流政治家视为奈杰尔·法拉奇(Nigel Farage)的英国独立党的一个古怪的执念。
Tory candidates for the leadership will have to talk tough on Europe, but some of the frontrunners — including former chancellor Rishi Sunak and foreign affairs committee chair Tom Tugendhat — are likely to seek better relations with Brussels, with a view to softening the economic harm of Brexit and resolving the Northern Ireland stand-off.
保守党领导人候选人将不得不在欧洲问题上发表强硬言论,但一些领先者——包括前财政大臣里希•苏纳克(Rishi Sunak)和外交事务委员会主席汤姆·图根达特(Tom Tugendhat)——可能会寻求与布鲁塞尔改善关系,以缓解英国退欧对经济的伤害,并解决北爱尔兰僵局。
Paul Goodman, former Tory MP and editor of the ConservativeHome website, says that rightwing leadership contenders could promise to complete the Brexit project by using newfound regulatory freedoms to deliver a “Singapore Brexit” — of low taxes and light regulation — while striking tough poses on the NI protocol.
前保守党议员、保守党之家(ConservativeHome)网站编辑保罗•古德曼(Paul Goodman)表示,右翼领导人竞选人可以承诺,通过利用新获得的监管自由,实现“新加坡式的脱欧”(即低税收、宽松监管),同时对北爱协议摆出强硬姿态,从而完成脱欧计划。
At the same time, Johnson’s success at using Brexit to open up the north of England to the Tories has created new economic facts on the ground for whoever becomes the next Conservative prime minister. First time Tory voters in 2019 are expecting to see some return on their political investment and many are still waiting.
与此同时,约翰逊成功地利用英国退欧向保守党敞开了英格兰北部的大门,这为无论谁成为下一任保守党首相都创造了新的经济现实。2019年保守党选民首次投票,他们期待看到政治投资的一些回报,许多人仍在等待。
The next Tory prime minister will need to hold on to working class northern towns — the seat of Wakefield was retaken by Labour at a by-election in June that spooked Conservative MPs — if they are to retain power after the next election, expected in 2024. That means maintaining high levels of public spending to achieve Johnson’s “levelling up” agenda.
如果保守党想要在预计2024年的下次选举后继续掌权,下一任保守党首相将需要保住北部的工人阶级城镇——在6月份的一次补选中,工党重新夺回了韦克菲尔德的席位,这让保守党议员感到不安。这意味着要维持高水平的公共支出,以实现约翰逊的“城镇升级”议程。
This new political map poses a problem for wannabe leaders. To win the leadership, they have to woo a Tory electorate of around 100,000 party members who are often old, southern-based and well-off. But to hold on to national power they will have to appeal to those northern towns that Johnson promised so much to. Above all, Tory members and the Conservative-supporting parts of the media want tax cuts.
这种新的政治版图给想成为领导人的人带来了一个问题。为了赢得领导权,他们必须赢得约10万保守党选民的支持,这些选民大多是居住在南方、生活富裕的老年人。但要保住国家权力,他们就必须吸引那些北部城镇,约翰逊曾承诺要吸引这些城镇。最重要的是,保守党成员和支持保守党的部分媒体希望减税。
As chancellor, Sunak recognised the simple mathematical problem of delivering high public spending and lower taxes, especially at a time of high inflation and as the country counts the economic and personal cost of the coronavirus pandemic. He argued that lower taxes should be paid for by higher growth and spending cuts. Jacob Rees-Mogg, a Johnson loyalist in parliament, claimed this week that Sunak’s willingness to put up taxes to balance the books made him a “much lamented socialist chancellor”.
作为财政大臣,苏纳克认识到高公共支出和低税收这一简单的数学问题,尤其是在高通胀时期,在该国计算新冠疫情的经济和个人成本之际。他认为,低税收应该由更高的增长和削减开支来支付。约翰逊在议会中的忠实支持者雅各布•里斯-莫格(Jacob Rees-Mogg)本周声称,苏纳克愿意通过增加税收来平衡收支,这使他成为“令人遗憾的社会主义财政大臣”。
Johnson was about to over-rule his chancellor by offering aggressive tax cuts, probably funded by borrowing, insisting this is the way to boost growth. But Sunak quit in protest, just minutes after Javid, fearing Johnson’s short-term survival strategy risked throwing petrol on the inflationary fire.
约翰逊打算否决他的财政大臣,提出激进的减税方案,并坚称这是提振增长的途径,减税资金可能来自借款。但就在贾维德辞职几分钟后,苏纳克辞职以示抗议,他担心约翰逊的短期生存策略可能会给通胀火上浇油。
Goodman believes the economic debate in the Tory leadership will be between those, like Sunak, who favour tax cuts funded by spending cuts, and those who want tax cuts funded by borrowing.
古德曼认为,保守党领导层的经济辩论将在像苏纳克这样,支持通过削减开支来支持减税的人,与希望通过借贷来支持减税的人之间展开。
A third Johnson legacy is likely to be an ongoing commitment to relatively high levels of defence spending. The prime minister’s decisive response to the Ukraine crisis, including immediately arming Kyiv, has earned him rare credit abroad. Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday called him “a hero”.
约翰逊留下的第三个遗产可能是对相对较高水平的国防开支的持续承诺。首相对乌克兰危机的果断反应,包括立即向基辅提供武器,为他在国外赢得了罕见的声誉。周四,弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基(Volodymyr Zelensky)称他为“英雄”。
Just days before his resignation Johnson urged Nato countries to honour their commitment to spend a minimum of 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence; Britain has long exceeded that target. Johnson has demonstrated that in a post-Brexit world, the UK can leverage its relative military heft to gain foreign policy advantage.
就在他辞职的前几天,约翰逊敦促北约国家履行承诺,将至少2%的国内生产总值用于国防;英国早已超过了这一目标。约翰逊已经证明,在英国脱欧后的世界里,英国可以利用其相对的军事力量来获得外交政策的优势。

‘It’s never his fault’

“这从来都不是他的错”

In his resignation speech, Johnson said he was “proud” of his achievements, including delivering Brexit, rolling out an effective Covid-19 vaccine programme and standing up for Ukraine. But his domestic policy agenda — including economic policy — often seemed incoherent. His day-to-day management was shambolic.
约翰逊在辞职演讲中表示,他对自己取得的成就感到“自豪”,包括实现英国退欧、推出有效的新冠疫苗计划以及支持乌克兰。但他的国内政策议程(包括经济政策)往往显得不连贯。他的日常管理混乱不堪。
“He will go down as a significant prime minister, but not seen as good for the country,” says Lidington. “He was never any good at actually governing.” Goodman compares Johnson to a “Turkish sultan or a Tudor monarch”, ruling by whim, constantly changing his mind, with no clear strategic direction.
“他将作为一位重要的首相而被载入史册,但不被视为对国家有益,”利丁顿说。“他从来都不擅长真正的治理。” 古德曼把约翰逊比作一个“土耳其苏丹或都铎王朝的君主”,靠一时兴起来统治,不断改变主意,没有明确的战略方向。
The departure of his controversial adviser Dominic Cummings in 2020 stripped Johnson of one of the few people in his inner circle to provide any strategic policy grip; crisis management was often the principal preoccupation of those in Downing Street in recent times.
2020年,他备受争议的顾问多米尼克·卡明斯(Dominic Cummings)的离职,让约翰逊失去了核心圈子中为数不多的能够掌控战略政策的人之一;最近一段时间,危机管理往往是唐宁街官员的主要关注点。
Johnson performed numerous “resets” of his Downing Street operation, but none of them corrected the fundamental flaw: the prime minister himself. Johnson, once sacked as a Times journalist for making up a quote, at times seemed to have only a passing acquaintance with the truth.
约翰逊对他在唐宁街的运作进行了多次“重置”,但没有一次能纠正根本的缺陷:首相本人。约翰逊曾经因为编造一句话而被《泰晤士报》的记者解雇,有时他似乎对真相只是一知半解。
In the wake of the partygate affair, which saw Johnson attempting to cover up the existence of parties in Number 10 during Covid lockdowns, the prime minister insisted in May that “the entire senior management has changed”. Opposition Labour MPs laughed. At the time Johnson — who was fined for breaking the law over these parties — admitted that he would never undergo a “psychological transformation” and it was this crucial fact that ultimately led to his downfall this week. Tory MPs realised that he would never change.
“排队门”事件发生后,约翰逊试图在新冠疫情封锁期间掩盖唐宁街10号开过排队的事实,首相在5月坚称“整个高级管理层已经改变”。反对党工党议员笑了。当时,因在这些聚会上违法而被罚款的约翰逊承认,他永远不会经历“心理转变”,这一关键事实最终导致了他本周的下台。保守党议员意识到他永远不会改变。
The final scandal to topple Johnson centred on an incident last week in which a senior Conservative party politician — the deputy chief whip, Chris Pincher — drunkenly groped two men at a private members’ club. Pincher resigned but Johnson faced questions about why he had appointed him in the first place.
推翻约翰逊的最后一桩丑闻集中在上周发生的事件上:一名保守党高级政客——保守党副党鞭克里斯•平彻(Chris Pincher)——在一家私人会员俱乐部醉酒后猥亵两名男子。平彻辞职了,但是约翰逊面临着为什么他一开始会任命他的问题。
As with partygate, Johnson’s first instinct was to conceal the truth, telling his official spokesman and cabinet ministers to trot out the line that he was unaware of previous “specific allegations” that Pincher was involved in sexual misconduct.
与“派对门”一样,约翰逊的第一反应是隐瞒真相,告诉他的官方发言人和内阁部长们,他不知道此前关于平彻涉及不当性行为的“具体指控”。
It was not true and Johnson’s lies — predictably — were soon exposed. In a decisive intervention on Wednesday, the former top civil servant at the Foreign Office, Lord Simon McDonald, revealed that Pincher had been investigated after a similar incident in 2019 while he was a minister in the department. The complaint had been upheld and prime minister Johnson had been briefed, in person.
这不是真的,约翰逊的谎言——可以预见——很快就被揭穿了。在周三的一次决定性干预中,前外交部高级公务员西蒙•麦克唐纳勋爵(Lord Simon McDonald)透露,平彻在2019年担任外交部大臣时曾发生过类似事件,之后他受到了调查。该申诉得到了支持,约翰逊首相本人也得到了通报。
The revelation prompted an outpouring of Tory frustration and anger with the leader, and more than 50 government resignations. Javid said that ministers were fed up with being asked to lie on Johnson’s behalf, adding in a letter to the prime minister that “the values you represent reflect on your colleagues, your party and ultimately your country”.
这一消息的披露引发了保守党对这位领导人的不满和愤怒,并导致50多名政府官员辞职。贾维德表示,部长们已经受够了被要求为约翰逊撒谎。他在给首相的一封信中补充说,“你所代表的价值观反映了你的同事、你的政党,最终也反映了你的国家。”
Johnson retreated to his bunker, scorning efforts by once-loyal cabinet ministers on Wednesday night to persuade him to resign with some dignity. Instead the prime minister’s final hours with full executive authority were spent exacting revenge.
周三晚上,曾经忠心耿耿的内阁部长们试图说服约翰逊体面地辞职,约翰逊对此不屑一顾,退回到自己的掩体中。相反,首相拥有完全行政权力的最后几个小时被用来进行严厉的报复。
Michael Gove, who jointly led the Brexit campaign with Johnson in 2016, was sacked at 9pm for his alleged treachery after he privately advised the prime minister to quit. Gove, the levelling-up secretary, who had betrayed Johnson when he made his first bid for the Conservative party leadership in 2016, was branded “a snake” by the prime minister’s allies.
2016年与约翰逊共同领导英国退欧运动的迈克尔•戈夫(Michael Gove),在私下建议首相辞职后,因涉嫌背叛,于晚上9点被解雇。正在逐步晋升的大臣戈夫在2016年首次竞选保守党领袖时背叛了约翰逊,被首相的盟友称为“一条蛇”。
“Revenge is a dish best served cold,” says one friend of Johnson. “That was done out of pure pleasure — final revenge for what he did in 2016.”
“君子报仇,十年不晚,”约翰逊的一位朋友说。“那是出于纯粹的快乐--对他在2016年所做的事进行最后的报复。”
By that stage Johnson was struggling to find people to fill the ever-increasing number of ministerial vacancies. He slept on the issue and at 6am on Thursday he began drafting his resignation speech.
到了那个阶段,约翰逊正在努力寻找人员来填补不断增加的部长职位空缺。他想着这个问题睡了一觉,周四早上6点,他开始起草他的辞职演讲。
He used it to blame Conservative MPs for making the “eccentric” decision to get rid of him, claiming he had been trampled underfoot by a “herd” of panicking colleagues. “He’s clearly very angry because it’s never his fault,” says one former cabinet minister.
他借此指责保守党议员做出了让他下台的“古怪”决定,声称他被一群惊慌失措的同僚踩在脚下。一位前内阁大臣表示:“他显然非常愤怒,因为这从来都不是他的错。”
Johnson’s resignation was greeted with huge relief among his colleagues. “Thank God,” said one cabinet minister, as the prime minister signalled the end of his turbulent three-year reign.
约翰逊的辞职让他的同事们如释重负。“感谢上帝,”一位内阁大臣说道,此时首相终于表态,他三年的动荡统治即将结束。
McDonald, ousted by Johnson from the Foreign Office for his supposedly anti-Brexit views in 2020, on Thursday evening tweeted a picture of a glorious summer sunset over the gothic towers of Westminster with the simple words: “It was a good day.”
麦克唐纳在2020年因所谓的反英国退欧观点而被约翰逊从外交部赶下台。周四晚上,他在Twitter上发布了一张照片,照片上是威斯敏斯特哥特式塔楼上灿烂的夏日夕阳,上面写着简单的文字:“这是美好的一天。”
版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

特朗普和海湖庄园的力量

这位前房地产开发商非常了解如何将建筑和空间有效地用作宣传。

为2024年的世界感到高兴的十个理由

从巴黎圣母院的修复到《抑制热情》的大结局,这一年其实并不算太糟。

2025年德国大选:主要的竞选承诺是什么?

各大政党提出了截然不同的计划,以重振欧洲最大经济体的命运。

“市场恐慌”:巴西财政赤字导致货币跌至新低

总统在面临其第三个任期内的最大挑战。

特朗普过渡团队寻求在“第一天”让美国退出世卫组织

美国的迅速退出将使全球卫生机构失去主要资金来源,并削弱其应对紧急情况的能力。

谷歌推动重新确立人工智能领域的领先地位,提振了投资者信心

在经历了过山车般的一年之后,人工智能和量子计算领域的一系列突破带来了转机。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×