The writer is a senior economist at JPMorgan
作者是摩根大通(JPMorgan)高级经济学家。
Over the past few weeks, Japan’s government bond yields have surged to highs last seen in the 1990s — raising eyebrows both in Tokyo and elsewhere in the world. Ostensibly, this latest jump was a reaction to the mulling of a temporary consumption tax holiday on food. Given the relentless rise in the cost of staples — rice prices have doubled — the tax cut strikes a chord in an economy where the cost of living has barely changed in a generation.
过去几周，日本国债收益率飙升至上世纪90年代以来的最高水平，令东京乃至世界其他地区都感到震惊。表面上看，此次飙升是对政府考虑暂时取消食品消费税的反应。鉴于主食价格持续上涨——大米价格已翻番——对于生活成本在之前二三十年几乎没有变化的日本经济而言，这项减税措施无疑会引起强烈反响。
The food tax holiday could lead to an annual fall in tax revenues of around 1 per cent of GDP, on our estimates. Manageable in isolation but challenging in the context of potential social security contribution cuts, defence spending increases and other pro-growth policies. As other governments have found to their peril, lowering consumption taxes is the easy part; putting them back up is not. By pushing bond yields higher, markets are probably right to question whether any cut would indeed be temporary.
据我们估计，暂停征收食品消费税可能导致日本每年税收收入减少相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的约1%。单独来看，这或许尚可应对，但在可能削减社会保障缴款、增加国防开支以及其他促进经济增长的政策背景下，挑战性不小。正如其他一些国家政府已经付出惨痛代价所证明的那样，降低消费税容易，但重新提高消费税却并非易事。债券收益率的上升也表明，市场质疑任何减税措施是否真的只是暂时的，这种质疑或许不无道理。