IEA: backlashes mean oil and gas demand may not peak so soon

{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":12.96,"text":"It is unusual for the International Energy Agency to release forecasts a month before its flagship annual energy report. "}],[{"start":20,"text":"Climate policies are in jeopardy in the world’s largest economies, though. "},{"start":24.404,"text":"The IEA’s assertion that demand for oil, gas and coal will peak before 2030 can be seen as a rallying cry as governments waver in the face of discontent. "}],[{"start":33.78,"text":"The watchdog’s analysis is based on the policies of governments as they stand. "},{"start":38.234,"text":"There is often a chasm between intention and reality. "},{"start":41.252,"text":"Backlashes of the kind already witnessed in countries including the UK and Germany this summer could easily extend the use of fossil fuels. "}],[{"start":49.24,"text":"Last year, the IEA raised the prospect that global gas and coal use would either plateau or fall back by the end of the decade. "},{"start":56.369,"text":"It had previously expected oil to level off in the middle of the next decade, not before 2030. "}],[{"start":62.71,"text":"Oil demand is currently at record levels. "},{"start":65.452,"text":"It reached 103mn barrels a day in June. "},{"start":68.607,"text":"Strong demand for air travel and increased use of oil for power generation has pushed up consumption this year. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":75.32,"text":"The IEA justifiably believes Chinese demand will slow. "},{"start":79.124,"text":"Global electric vehicle sales are one reason for the watchdog’s bullishness. "},{"start":83.29199999999999,"text":"These reached 10mn in 2022, accounting for 14 per cent of total sales. "},{"start":88.49699999999999,"text":"They are forecast to grow this year to 14mn. "},{"start":91.53899999999999,"text":"By 2030, EVs are expected to cut the need for 5mn barrels of oil a day. "}],[{"start":97.64999999999999,"text":"The IEA will publish its forecasts in full next month. "},{"start":101.30399999999999,"text":"Executive director Fatih Birol should accompany them with a health warning: governments will have to step up transition efforts to hit the milestones the IEA is proposing. "}],[{"start":110.66999999999999,"text":"In Germany, Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition watered down a ban on oil and gas boilers following an outcry from homeowners worried about the costs of switching to cleaner technologies. "},{"start":120.34899999999999,"text":"In the US, Republicans have been trying to dilute or repeal parts of the Inflation Reduction Act. "},{"start":125.74199999999999,"text":"The UK government has committed to more oil and gas drilling. "}],[{"start":129.58999999999997,"text":"Clean energy investors frequently complain that other issues such as planning delays put climate policies in doubt. "}],[{"start":136.40999999999997,"text":"The original concept of “peak oil” was that supplies of the stuff would start running out from 1970. "},{"start":142.15199999999996,"text":"In its new guise, “peak oil” describes the point at which demand starts dropping unstoppably. "},{"start":147.34399999999997,"text":"The inaccuracy of the former casts sensible doubt over the latter. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":150.77999999999997,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/121923-1694563019.mp3"}